How much should the ideal person cry wolf? Apr 22, 2026

It is a fact about wolves and rationality that you should warn people about wolves quite a few times for every effective wolf attack.

Vibe signaling externalities and the people-to-places pipeline Apr 21, 2026

People are sending signals all the time, and those signals are to my knowledge usually about themselves: they are smart, or kind, or attractive, or not naive, or have their shit together, or care about Palestine, or care about you, or are friendly, or artsy, or professional, or relatively in the know about the cultural currents of TikTok or DC.

People are also taking in signals all the time, and these signals are often about other people, and often even closely related to the signals being intentionally sent: Alice is trying to seem friendly, and Bob perceives her as friendly. But also a lot of signals people take in are about places. People read places as safe or dangerous, lighthearted or depressing, silly or serious, asking them to know more, or get more power, or do more. Suggesting they laugh drunkenly under the moonlight, or get up at 5 and pray. Encouraging submission or rebellion.

These signals that make the world feel one way or another make a big difference to people. They make one neighborhood nice to live in and another feel off, one workplace energizing and another deflating. But they are—to my knowledge—almost entirely unintentional side effects of the ways people behave for other reasons. People don’t dress nicely to collaborate in making you feel like you are in a thriving part of town. They dress nicely to make someone think something about them. And someone probably does, but then the signal is left there for everyone else to sweep into their average perception of the vibe in this part of town.

AI risk was not invested by AI CEOs to hype their companies Apr 20, 2026

I hear that many people believe that the idea of advanced AI threatening human existence was invented by AI CEOs to hype their products. I’ve even been condescendingly informed of this, as if I am the one at risk of naively accepting AI companies’ preferred narratives.

If you are reading this, you are probably familiar enough with the decades-old AI safety community to know this isn’t true. But I don’t have a good direct way to reach the people who could use this information, and still I hate to leave such a falsehood uncontested. So if this is obvious, I hope the post is still perhaps useful to point more distant and confused people toward.

The salad market mystery Apr 19, 2026

It often happens that I desire kale, but I want it to be clean and cut up, and while shops do sell this product by the bucketload, they are actually only willing to sell it by the bucketload. As a normal-sized person wanting a one-off salad, rather than a family of nine celebrating a kale festival, the market seems very uninterested in my existence.

‘Just put it in the fridge and eat it over the coming week, this isn’t a big deal’ I hear someone say. But I already have several plotlines going on in my life. I don’t want an additional kale arc that I need to track to resolution. I don’t want to commit. I just want a no-strings-attached salad that I can consume and walk away from.

Athletic education vs. athletic torment Apr 18, 2026

I don’t know if it occurred to me until my thirties to think of exercise as an enjoyable thing. I was familiar with finding obscure corner-cases that were fun, such as Dance Dance Revolution. But the idea of it just often being a good time was alien.

Missing markets in executive function Apr 17, 2026

It’s early in the morning, and sadly 1:29pm. After spending some time looking at things and picking them up and walking up the stairs and down the stairs and considering questions like “what should I…”, which my brain apparently considered objects of art more than of imperative, I inched into a decision to go out somewhere. Perhaps it would be clearer there.

After a blur of climbing and descending stairs and seeking objects and forgetting what I was doing and appreciating how beautiful my bag is, I set out. After remembering I should take various medications and going back inside to do that, I set out.

Tax offenses Apr 16, 2026

I paid my taxes this evening. I was disappointed to lose thousands of dollars, but I’d say this was emotionally overshadowed by my disappointment at the web interfaces I had to navigate to lose it.

Unsickness celebration Apr 15, 2026

When I’ve been sick for a bit, here are some things that may be true:

• I haven’t exercised lately

• I have developed a vague background sense that I’m fragile and if I were to exercise it should be by walking around the garden or something

• I’m dressed in what is too shlubby to even count as comfortable

• I am otherwise behind on some basic life things that take effort and are normally subsidized by social incentives, e.g. showering, putting tissues in the bin, eating things that aren’t power crunch bars

• I am habitually avoiding other people

• I am habitually avoiding places where other people go

• I am habitually treating myself as a contamination threat

• I’ve been lying around in bed quite a bit

I posit that a problem with this is that these things are somewhat self reinforcing, so the period of indisposition can insidiously take hold and last substantially longer than the sickness. Feeling unfit, poorly dressed, fragile, gross and contaminatory make various things less appealing, such as visiting a gym, seeing other people, going to the office, leaving one’s room at all, leaving one’s bed at all, embarking on ambitious tidying up ventures.

Worse, it is fairly ambiguous when one stops being sick, so there may not be a moment where it’s very clear you should change your behavior, especially if you continue to feel vaguely bad from these depression-flavored lifestyle factors.

Last time I was sick for a while I was in a fairly good mood during the sickness itself, but was relatively depressed for maybe a month afterwards, which I suspect is related to this kind of thing.

I was sick last week, and seemed to be better on Saturday. To avoid this kind of problem this time, I had an idea: an official end to sickness ritual, where you abruptly do all the things a non-sick person would do, and reset your expectations about yourself.

When will AI surpass us at being limited? Apr 14, 2026

It’s not always better to be more capable. As I mentioned yesterday, it can (famously) be helpful in negotiations to have your hands tied. That is, to be disempowered from giving up everything the other party wants.

I had previously thought of this as a somewhat rare corner case of human behavior—I for one don’t haggle very often—but I now think negotiations where this is an element are are quite common: yesterday I described it in friendly (and honest) negotiations about how to spend time, for instance. And I also see a related thing in the practice of dietary commitments.

But is being less capable helpful outside of negotiating? And is this going to become AI related?

Yes and yes!

Orgs: unreasonable boyfriend as service Apr 13, 2026

Suppose you and Bobby the car salesman are haggling over the price of a car. You could try saying that you won’t pay more than $3k, but Bobby can equally retort that he won’t sell it for less than $4k. If you guys manage to negotiate a sale, it will probably be at more than $3k (and involve revealing both of you as liars).

Now imagine the same situation, but you only have $3k and Bobby knows it. Now, if $3k is actually ok for him, you win and get your price.

Now imagine you are rich but you have a boyfriend at home who has only agreed to a $3k expenditure on a used car at this time, and thinks any more would be crazy. It’s shared money, so to pay more you would need to go away and get his permission, and it wouldn’t be easy. If Bobby believes you, then your situation is much like being poor again, and you win.

My guess is I read about this in Thomas Schelling’s The Strategy of Conflict when I was a teenager. The general observation is that being more constrained can often be helpful in a negotiation. Which is a bit shocking because it undermines the seeming truism that more power—more options, more resources—is always better for getting what you want.

A less general observation that also stuck with me about this is that you can trivially arrange to have such constraints through having an associate, such as a stubborn and spending-conscious boyfriend. (Ok, finding one of those is not trivial, especially if you have other desiderata.)

This is all background. The thing I want to point out is that being part of an organization rather than a free agent means creating and using this effect all over the place.